PROTECTION 2012 (January 2012 Commentary)
The volitile Pre-Presidential Election year of 2011 has come to a close, and it managed to work its way back by years end to price levels seen beforehand in February 2011 in the DJIA.
Additional price gains in 2012 to levels achieved beforehand in April 2011 are possible this year; however, ProtectVEST anticipates a significant market correction to begin forming shortly after this 2012 January Options Expiration Date.
Presidential Election years are historically and systematically poor "Reward-to-Risk' price ratio years, so ProtectVEST once again advises well-managed protection going into the Spring of 2012 and well beyond.
Significant short oportunities should manifest themselves this year.
And, once again, in the MDPP Forecast for this year, implementation of 'effective full net portfolio insurance hedges' and 'full net portfolio shorting instruments' occasionally added 'in basket' to otherwise general portfolio open long risk assumptions (within diversified major market baskets of securities) may be considered an especially valuable strategy to employ this year, particularly for more sophisticated, flexible, and nimble market participants and investors.
The Quarterly EchoVector (QEV) Annual EchoVector (AEV) Presidential Cycle EchoVector (PCEV) Regime Change Cycle EchoVector (RCCEV)
PROTECTION 2011 (February 2011 Commentary)
ProtectVEST considers 2011 as the likely start of a significant price correction in the US major market large cap stock composite indexes from their lofty gains achieved since the index lows of March 2009.
Therefore, ProtectVEST's is calling for Protective Portfolio Positioning for any portfolios exposed to the Major Market since the DJ30IA acquired the price level of 12,100 in February, about $121 on the DIA ETF equivalency basis.
FedQE1 and QE2 will finished in 2011, and so too will their stimuli to near-term stock price appreciation and support. The end to these Federal Reserve actions within the current phase of The EchoVectorVEST Presidential Cycle, coupled with the possibility of a shortened EchoVectorVEST Regime Change Cycle to four years, removes most any advantage to holding major market securities in typically diversified aggregates going forward without full portfolio exposure insurance protections active that would protect the gains acquired by reaching the level of 12,100 on the DJ30IA
The reward-to-risk ratio 'to the long side' for this 2011 year FORWARD (AND WELL INTO NEXT YEAR), in our view and opinion, appears Cyclically Uninviting to investors (without the utilization and employment of optimum composite price level management 'attaining, capturing, and insuring portfolio value' protocols actively being employed. Negative or "sideways at best" price action in the major market is likely.
ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST MDPP sees major risk to the US large cap composite stock market going forward into MAY 2011, with a moderate bounce back in July, but with even increased risk going forward into August.
In the MDPP Forecast, implementation of 'effective full net portfolio insurance hedges' and 'full net portfolio shorting instruments' occasionally added 'in basket' to otherwise general portfolio open long risk assumptions (within diversified major market baskets of securities) may be considered an especially valuable strategy to employ this year, particularly for more sophisticated, flexible, and nimble market participants and investors.
AN ILLUSTRATIVE METAPHOR...
ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST, MDPP
(Protection in the Rain)
To spend something like 'eleven quarters polishing up your clients shoes to a high premium-level shine,' only to allow their shoes 'to deteriorate' once again 'on the street,' especially on 'the trek' through yet another 'Presidential election year storm and cycle' and all the 'storm puddles' typically found then, is demoralizing for both you and your clients, and can be devastating to their planned financial goals and their trust.
You can help protect and secure that 'valuable buff and shine' you achieved on your 'clients' portfolio values,' and also protect the effects of that spent WORK-TIME you both invested so ardently and diligently to work up and acquire that 'high premium-level shine!"
(And your clients will love you for this!)
Protect them with ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST.
ProtectVest can help you design 'just the right boots,' just the 'right cover' for you, for each of your clients, and/or for all of your clients in aggregate as well, to help protect your portfolios against the price effects of these 'rainy days and these puddles,' as you might choose!
And The Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and ALERT Paradigm can ALERT you to its forecast 'market weather,' including potentially detected 'incoming rain clouds' so you and your clients might not be caught off guard and get 'portfolio soaked' when these approaching adversities may otherwise be difficult for you to see.
(ProtectVEST can even ALERT you to upcoming 'rainy mornings, rainy afternoons, rainy days, and rainy weeks detected by its forecast model and methodology in what are the otherwise clear and sunny seasons as well!)
And you can 'put on' your tailored cover, applying it at moments and at times that you elect!
Having moving your clients 'through the storms covered,' and when others are spending their time (once again) cleaning up their relatively deteriorated shoes, you will be able earn your clients 'additional shine instead,' with the saved time, saved loss, and saved energy, and from their better overall position.
And your clients will love you for this too.
And, in the meantime, your clients can continue to enjoy the security and advantage of their still just as buff shoes all the while. Even as they had through the storm. You, and they, will be that much of and farther ahead of the Average, who, unfortunately, have yet again, found themselves back in the 'deteriorating rain and puddles', with all their full uncovered effects, and are being uncomfortably consoled, "Don't worry, eventually the sunshine will dry out you shoes. We will try to buff them back up once again."
And your clients will vividly see this difference, as they always do, and get to live in it.
And will love you for this, too.
And then they likely will eagerly and happily 'spread the word' on what you have done for them, in this critical difference.
And you will love them for that.
Walk in these shoes!
ProtectVEST will show you how. Take the next step...
Through the fully applied financial physics and engineering of ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST, ProtectVEST can even prepare you and your clients to 'tap and convert the energy ' brought in 'these rainy periods' into 'even higher buffed shines' as well, making that matter also, and added, to your clients overall portfolio gains.
ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST can prepare you and show you how.
ProtectVEST And AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS
"We're keeping watch for you."
"Those with the eyes to see, let them see..."
AS OF TUESDAY MORNING, 16 AUG 11 9AMEST
The major market in high cap stocks has continued its recent price stabilization, and is presently holding up. However, it is already trading trading in the Upper 2ND Level Forecast Recovery Price Range Area generated by the EchoVectorVEST MDPP Forecast and Alert Model.
The ProtectVEST/AdvanceVEST 'look' (or 'focus') is for QEV and 2QEV EBD signal weakness to occur this week, likely in the second half, and coming, more precisely, around option expiration.
SEE EASYGUIDECHARTS BUTTON
The two forward and highlighted and now ensuing periods beginning with Red-block (and each lasting about a week) present the most significant challenge to the price recovery off recent lows earlier in the month. These red signal blocks could, in part, contribute to the generation of an ACTIONABLE ALERT issued within the MDPP Forecast and Alert Model.
An additionally forecasted move in ST price re-strengthening in gold came in yesterday.
EasyGuideChart: DIA Equivalency Basis. We have entered the QEV 2QEV ETD caution area, highlighted by the yellow horizontal bars.
Below is an EchoVectorVEST EasyGuideChart illustrating clearly the MDPP's Regime Change Cycle EchoVector ($XMI basis), and the efficacy of the MDPP Presidential Cycle EchoVectors. Note how the green 'parallel and ascending' Presidential Cycle EchoVectors (PCEVs) also remain intact and working as well within the highlighted timeframe of the Regime Change Cycle EchoVector (RCCEV). Note the key price support in 2010 in the RCCEV as well.
Below is an EchoVectorVEST EasyGuideChart, $XMI basis, clearly illustrating the efficacy of Presidential Cycle EchoVectors. Another entire webpage at the ProtectVest website is dedicated to illustrating the current PCEVs generated within the MDPP Forecast Model. Below, isolating on the horizontal 'green bar period' within the Presidential EchoVector, strong price ascension and then derivative toppiness in May can be viewed. Note the green PCEV parallel ascending vector. Note also the ascension start dates and the blue blue EV horizontal baseline price start on those start dates. Additionally note the corresponding price levels, May 2007 to May 2011. ("Sell in May and go away" is again also apparent.) The two year long purple/blue box illustrates a CCEV (Congressional Cycle EchoVector) period. It also depicts an intersect period with the EchoVectorVEST MDPP RCCEV. Also see the powerful reverse head and shoulders pattern in the blue box.
The third EchoVectorVest EasyGuideChart frames this PCEV GuideChart within an EVV MDPP Regime Change Cycle EchoVector (RCCEV) illustration.
The EchoVectorVEST Forecast Model indicates clear EV topping activity present, as illustrated in the EasyGuideChart below. On the QEVPEVs, see the 'towards flat prices, then to the downside' pivoting activity in prices as indicated by the differences in the yellow, red, and blue dotted PEVs slopes. Note also the precipitous seasonal toppiness in both May 2010 and May 2011, and in the May Annual EchoVector, AEV (in green). Hence the Wall street adage, "Sell in May and go away." The brown boxes within the EchoVectorVEST EasyGuideChart illustrates the regular and successive weak QEV price periods (net sideways or down in period) observable starting with last May. The blue PEV indicates where market prices can 'pivot' and the 'fall' too in the short run on the $XMI basis, and as 'baked into the cake' within the of the MDPP Forecast Model.
Review the additional EchoVectorVest EasyGuideCharts below for an illustration of ProtectVest's General Outlook for this year and next.
ProtectVEST and AdvanceVest by EchoVectorVEST MDPP
A simple quote from Wikipedia for our more 'financial physics' oriented market participants:
"The simplest examples of a phase line are the trivial phase lines, corresponding to functions ƒ(y) which do not change sign: if ƒ(y) = 0, every point is a stable equilibrium (y does not change); if ƒ(y) > 0 for all y, then y is always increasing, and if ƒ(y) < 0 then y is always decreasing.
Convergence: Aside from an orthoclinical component in geological science, a metaphysical apeoria in the contemplation of bodies, a selective candidate in analyzing linear complexes, the line phase distinguishes a significant identity of typical systems that relate to theoretical or concrete data.
The simplest non-trivial examples are the exponential growth model/decay (one unstable/stable equilibrium) and the logistic growth model (two equilibria, one stable, one unstable).
Classification of critical points: A critical point can be classified as stable, unstable, or semi-stable (equivalently, sink, source, or node), by inspection of its neighbouring arrows. if both arrows point toward the critical point, it is stable (a sink): nearby solutions will converge asymptotically to the critical point, and the solution is stable under small perturbations, meaning that if the solution is disturbed, it will return to (converge to) the solution.
If both arrows point away from the critical point, it is unstable (a source): nearby solutions will diverge from the critical point, and the solution is unstable under small perturbations, meaning that if the solution is disturbed, it will not return to the solution. Otherwise – if one arrow points towards the critical point, and one points away – it is semi-stable (a node): it is stable in one direction (where the arrow points towards the point), and unstable in the other direction (where the arrow points away from the point)."
FIRST QUARTER 2012 RESULTS: OUTSTANDING: SUMMARY AND HYPERLINK TO MAJOR OTAPS CHRONOLOGY AND PASSIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT COMPARISON:
Why The Federal Reserve Elected To "Talk Up" The Economy And Therefore The Markets This Week.
Apr 27, 2012 8:24 PM |
about: DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM
Below is a five year weekly OHLC chart of the DJX, the 1/100TH of the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average. This chart highlights Key Presidential Cycle EchoVectorVEST EchoVectors and 4-year EchoBackDates in 2008 for the current 2012 market year. It also includes some key annual EchoVectorVEST EchoVectors and 1-year EchoBackDates in 2011 for the present 2012 market year which are currently in force (as a result of 'follow through' to key 2010 EchoVectors and 1-year EchoBackDates to the 2011 market year.
The chart is very revealing. "In pink" notice the current PCEV and PCEVEBD period we are currently entering. Also notice the current key AEV and AEVEBD, and last years springtime upward momentum finish we are currently entering "in short-line aqua-blue". Also note 'in solid horizontal green' notice the 'price equivalency basis recovery level' we have now achieved on the PCEV for this week.
In red and green 'spaced-lines' are illustrated various PCEVs and PCEVEBDs that came into play in last year's "spring and summer price level swoon" on the PCEV basis, and their 'pivotings' through quarters. The 'co-ordination' of these highlighted and key PCEVs and PCEVEBDs (on the weekly OHLC charting basis) is quite remarkable, especially regarding various near-term relative strength and relative weakness 'price echoes.'
It was not in the Federal Reserves current monetary expansion policy and therefore "accounting unit value amplification and magnification efforts" to see a precipitous conclusion to the upward price momentum and 'wealth effect' on the Presidential Cycle and Annual Cycle basis this week, so talking up the market at this key critical juncture and level ensued.
However, will 'talk' be sufficient to prevent the powerful market forces of these cycle price cycles and echovectors from fulfilling themselves going forward from this week on a PCEV and an AEV basis, especially with all the uncertainties in politics, geopolitics, macroeconomics, and employment currently being considered.
Full Net Portfolio Current Price Level Insurance (FNPI) may be considered particularly timely, on a risk-reward basis, now, and going forward into May 2012... and beyond.
EchoVectorVEST Lexical References:
PCEV Presidential Cycle EchoVector
PCEVEBD Presidential Cycle EchoVector EchoBackDate
AEV Annual Cycle EchoVector
AEVEBD Annual Cycle EchoVector EchoBackDate
FNPI Full Net Portfolio Insurance (Price Level Hedge)
DJX: 1/100TH of the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average 5-Year Weekly OHLC Key Presidential Cycle EchoVectorVEST EchoVectors
Key 4-Year EchoBackDates Key Annual EchoVectorVEST EchoVectors for 2012 and 2011. Key 1-Year EchoBackDates for 2012 and 2011
(Click on chart and click again to enlarge and zoom) See Chart at:
ProtectVest and AdvanceVest by EchoVectorVest, Divisions of Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots, Bradford Market Research and Analytics
Is Currently A FREE Educational, Forecast Opinion, and Forecast Methodology and Related Strategies Discussion Resource and Forum
"We're keeping watch for you."
Sample ProtectVEST Trader's Edge EasyGuideCharts From Archive
SAMPLE ARTICLE: 'LARGE CAP EQUITES': PUBLISHED MONDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2013 IN MULTIPLE VENUES
Next month's options expiration, coming March 15TH, marks the one-year anniversary of the spring 2012's momentum price top for large cap composite equity indexes, as measured by the Dow 30 Industrial Average.
Although this 2012 mid-March price momentum top was re-touched again several times later that March and April, significant lower lows also followed. These lower lows continued until a market bottom for the year was reached in early June, with an almost 10% sell-off in the Dow having occurred.
Prices had fallen from a seasonal high of just over $132, to a June (early) low of $120.19, measured by the DIA ETF. It then took the rest of June, July, and part of August to recover back these gains. On the strength of this price recovery (fueled significantly by Central Bank action and intervention) the DIA climb an additional 2.5% into September, but only to collapse again to near prior summer lows by November, a pattern very similar to prior year price activity.
However, since November 2012, and further keeping with this annual price action pattern, the DIA has gained a remarkable 16% into the present month of February 2013.
With these strong gains since November, some market bears are suggesting the time is now ripe for large cap stocks to begin to correct again, especially after this impressive and extensive level of price recovery and gain. Many bears are considering both seasonality, and relatively lofty current price levels, in their assessments, as well as caution from additional pressures from a relatively faltering European market.
Market bulls, on the other hand, are pointing to things like potential commodity (industrial factor input) price destruction, increased equity demand inflows as an alternative to faltering bonds, and continued aggressive central bank financial engineering, to keep upward market price momentum going. Some bulls also point to the cyclical market benefits that often accompany the second term phase of a Presidency as well.
I believe this coming month of trading, and well into the March 15TH options expiration, could be very revealing regarding the possible continuation of positive market price momentum into this spring, and later into this summer.
I suggest focusing closely on price action and relative strength during the period that spans a week and a half preceding March 15TH, and the two to three week period that immediately follow expiration (particularly the 12 trading days after March 15TH, and beyond).
A review of my attached chart of the Dow 30 Industrials E-mini Futures might suggest that a period of potential opportunity on the long side (ceteris paribus) starting the first Tuesday of March, and going into March expiration, might be forthcoming. This long opportunity may then be followed by potential cautionary period, perhaps even a period warranting a good look at the possible employment of large cap portfolio insurance (especially following the 12TH trading day after the March 15TH expiration), if not an outright shorting opportunity period.
I also believe price action over the next 4 weeks may also help foreshadow what price levels the key cyclical price support, and subsequent market up-move later this year may launch from, regarding a broadly anticipated Regime Change Cycle (8 year) price low potentially due this October.
A 16-Month Daily OHLC Chart with Key Annual EchoVectors and Quarterly Echo-Back Dates Illustrated:
A Chart With Active Annual Price Vectors And Select Quarterly Echo-Strength Vectors Illustrated Generated From Key Coordinated Focus Echo-Back Time Points.
Coordinated Echo-Back Time Points:
1. 2ND Week if February, 2012, to 2ND Week if February, 2013, and
2. Week Preceeding Options Expiration (Tuesday), March, June, September and December 2012.
Colors Of Coordinated EchoVectors Illustrated On Chart
Solid White: Annual EchoVector (QEV)
Dotted White: Annual Coordinate Forecast EchoVectors
Solid Green: Echo-Strength Vectors From First Tuesday of Month Coming Before Key Options Expiration Week.
This article is tagged with: Market Outlook Posted by EchoVectorVEST at 5:43 PM PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP
WHY PROTECTVEST: AN ILLUSTRATIVE METAPHOR FROM 2012
Protection for INCLIMATE MARKET WEATHER...
... to spend something like eleven quarters 'polishing up your clients financial shoes' to a 'high premium-level shine,' only to allow their 'shoes' (portfolios) to deteriorate once again 'on the street,' especially through a trek through yet 'another Presidential election year storm' and its cycle,' and all the potential 'financia puddles' they could step in then, can be demoralizing for both you and your clients, and can be very adverse to their planned financial goals, and to their trust in you...
You can help protect and secure the value of your clients portfolios, the value of its 'buff and shine already achieved', and protect achievements you and they have earned in TIME and WORK to acquire this 'premium-level shine!"
(And your clients will love you for this!)
And ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST, MDPP can help!
ProtectVest can help you design 'just the right boots,' just the 'right cover' for you, for each of your clients, and/or for all of your clients in aggregate, to help protect their portfolios against the price effects of these 'rainy, inclimate market days and storms' and these 'deteriorating financial puddles.'
And The Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and ALERT Paradigm can ALERT you to its powerful forecasted 'market weather,' potentially detecting these 'incoming financial rain clouds and storms' so you can better prepare your clients portfolios for them, You and your clients are then less likely to get 'caught off guard' and get 'portfolio soaked', when these inclimate times appear; but instead have cover.
(For extremely active and responding mangement regimes, ProtectVEST can also provide select ALERTS on upcoming 'rainy mornings, rainy afternoons, rainy days, and even rainy weeks (for professional intraday trade-desks and swing traders) detected by its forecast model and alert paradigm... in challenging seasons, and in what are the otherwise 'clear and sunny market seasons' as too!)
And you can 'PUT ON' your tailored COVERS, applying them at the moments, and at the times, within the included forecast alerts focus periods, that you elect!
ProtectVEST can help you more effectively move your clients' portfolios through these 'financial storms and inclimacies' covered, so when other managers are spending their time (once again) cleaning up their uncovered clients relatively deteriorated shoes (portfilios), you will instead be able earn your clients evermore 'additional portfolio value and shine,' with the saved time, saved loss, and saved energy, and from their better protected, preserved, and more actively managed portfolio position value.
And your clients will love you for this too!
And, in the meantime, your clients can continue to enjoy the security and advantage of their buff shoes all the while. Even as they had through the storm period. You, and they, will be that much farther ahead of the "Average", who, unfortunately, have yet again, found themselves back in the effects of 'deteriorating market weather and puddles', and may once again be faced with being uncomfortably consoled, "Don't worry, eventually the 'sunshine' will dry out you shoes. Things will come back. And we will try to buff them back up once again." While others are spending valuable market time 'coming back', you and your clients will instead now be positioned to be moving "ever further ahead."
And your clients will vividly see this comparable difference (as they always do) and love you for it, and be able to live in its benefit too!
And they likely will eagerly and happily 'spread the word' on what you have done for them, with this critical difference.
And you will love them for that.
Walk in these shoes with ProtectVEST! ProtectVEST will show you how. Take the next step...
For extremely active and responsive mangement regimes, AdvanceVEST can also provide Select Focus Opportunity ALERTS on upcoming mornings, afternoons, days, and weeks (for professional intraday trade-desks and swing traders) detected by its forecast model and alert paradigm... also in both challenging seasons and in clear and sunny market seasons as well!)
Through the fully applied financial physics and engineering and advanced risk-management ontology of ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST, you may be able to help advance your clients' and your ability to 'tap and convert the energy from these dynamic changing conditions' brought to you, in both the good and inclimate market weather, to ever more appreciable portfolio value gains, and 'higher portfolio value buff shines,', enhancing your clients overall portfolio value ever further, and offering them evidence on how your management has "further outperformed the street."
ProtectVEST And AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST MDPP* can help show you how.
*An applied methodology seeking to enhance major market exposed portfolio value security, and overall portfolio value performance and return, through the application and utilization of specialized derivatives as 'portfolio value insurancing hedges' when also combined with the power of the Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm* and the ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST Active Advanced Risk Management Trade Technology* and the Active Advanced Management Position Value Optimization Method*.
ProtectVEST And AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST, MDPP
DIVISIONS OF MOTION DYNAMICS AND PRECISION PIVOTS
"We're keeping watch for you"
"Those with the eyes to see, let them see..."
FOLLOWING FROM ECHOVECTOVEST MDPP
Effectively Employing the Power of
1. Active Advanced Analytics and Technical Forecast Modeling and Techniques, and
2. Active Advanced Position Management,
3. Active Advanced Trade Technology and Information Processing,
To Help Lead the Way Towards Financial Success in the 21ST Century.
Enhancing major market exposed portfolio value security and overall portfolio value performance and return through the application and utilization of specialized derivatives as 'portfolio value insurancing hedges' when also combined with the power of the Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm and the ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST MDPP Precision Pivots Active Advanced Risk Management Trade Technology and the Precision Pivots Active Advanced Management Position Value Optimization Method.
"Staying ahead of the curve; we're keep watch for you."
ProtectVest and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST MDPP
Providing Forecasting and Trade Management Technology, Analysis, and Education Consistent With...
More Than Doubling the Portfolio Position Value of The Major Market (Dow 30 Industrials, DIA ETF) From Mid-2007 to Early 2009!...
More Than Doubling Again from Early 2009 through 2010!...
Then More Than Doubling Again in 2011!...
And Then More Than Tripling Again in 2012!...
PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS.
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